Chinese researchers have developed a catalyst that converts synthesis gas into sustainable jet fuel – a breakthrough that could boost production, help meet net-zero carbon goals and yield a gross profit margin exceeding 50 per cent. The team verified the efficacy of the chemical catalyst in a thousand-tonne pilot test and found that combining woody biomass-derived synthesis gas, or syngas, with the cobalt-manganese catalyst enabled the “highly efficient synthesis of jet fuel”. Based on a techno-economic analysis that modelled a planned 100,000-tonnes-per-year jet fuel plant, the researchers estimated they could achieve a gross profit margin surpassing 50 per cent. “The excellent pilot test results and the positive techno-economic and life-cycle assessments underscore its strong potential for industrial deployment,” the team said in a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Communications in September. The team led by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Shanghai Advanced Research Institute said their research also established design principles to break selectivity limitations during syngas conversion. Unlike conventional petroleum-based jet fuel, sustainable aviation fuel is made from non-fossil fuel feedstocks such as municipal solid waste, cooking oil and biomass, according to the US Department of Energy. Intended to be used as a drop-in fuel that is blended with conventional fuel, it could reduce life-cycle carbon emissions by about 80 per cent compared with standard jet fuel. These emissions savings come from the production process, as emissions are still produced in the combustion of sustainable fuels. The aviation industry accounts for about 2 to 3 per cent of global human-made carbon dioxide emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization has set a goal for the industry to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. To achieve the goal, sustainable aviation fuels must be adopted on a large scale. Even so, sustainable fuel production is projected to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, or the equivalent of just 0.8 per cent of total global jet fuel consumption, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In a report published in June, the IATA said that jet fuel shortages and rising costs following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have played out differently if investments in sustainable fuels had been prioritised sooner. The main challenge facing the industry is scaling sustainable aviation fuel production so that costs can be reduced. Sustainable aviation fuel is several times more expensive than conventional fuel, owing to still-developing production technologies, expensive feedstocks and large upfront investment requirements, the IATA report said. There are several different established chemical pathways to obtain sustainable aviation fuel, including Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or the conversion of syngas – a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen – into jet fuel-range hydrocarbons. The syngas used in this process can be derived from the gasification or conversion of different forms of biomass. The Fischer-Tropsch route “offers high feedstock flexibility, well-established industrial infrastructure with strong scalability and the ability to produce fully drop-in hydrocarbon fuels”, the Chinese researchers said, adding it is “therefore expected to play a critical role” in achieving the 2050 sustainable aviation fuel targets. The team, which also included researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the Shanxi Research Institute, said more efficient catalysts were needed to enable practical large-scale applications using this method. In their paper, the team detailed a new cobalt-manganese catalyst with a carbon monoxide conversion rate of nearly 83 per cent. It also had a jet-fuel range hydrocarbon selectivity of more than 67 per cent, compared with below 50 per cent for most reported catalysts. This “overcomes the long-standing activity-selectivity trade-off for previous catalysts”. Beyond woody biomass, the catalyst could be used to process different kinds of “real-world” syngas feedstocks, the researchers added. After testing their catalyst in a kilogram-scale trial, the team completed a 1,000 tonnes-per-year pilot test in 2025. “At present, we plan to build a factory with a 100,000-tonne annual capacity using biomass gasification-derived syngas as the feedstock” in the city of Luzhou in China’s southwestern Sichuan province before 2028, the team said. Techno-economic analysis of a plant of this scale showed that, under a baseline of 8,000 operating hours per year, it could generate an estimated US$302 million in annual sales revenue. With annual operating costs of about US$114 million and an estimated “gross profit” of US$165 million. Based on the team’s projections, the facility could achieve a gross profit margin of nearly 55 per cent. Biomass feedstock accounts for more than half of the operational costs, they said, highlighting the importance of a cost-effective biomass supply chain for the project to be economically viable. The CAS-led team is not the only one aiming to scale up new sustainable aviation fuel production methods. In August, a 1,000-tonne sustainable aviation jet-fuel pilot plant developed by Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui Chemical Co and a research team from Tsinghua University passed a major continuous operation test. As the world’s first to produce sustainable jet fuel via direct carbon dioxide hydrogenation at this scale, the facility had technical approval from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, which deemed it “internationally leading”, according to Tsinghua. By using tail-gas recycling and hydrocarbon recovery, the total carbon dioxide utilisation rate reached 98 per cent. The successful trial paves the way for a 10,000-tonne industrial demonstration unit. The team also estimated that a full-scale 100,000-tonne plant could recover its initial investment in 2.5 years based on current fuel costs.