# Hyperliquid whale — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-16 22:38 UTC)

## @WhaleFactor (Whale Factor) · 09-15 17:47 · ♥143 ↻3 💬18 🐋 WHALE WATCH : Two Robinhood engineers used internal data on upcoming token listings to trade perpetual futures on Hyperliquid. The DOJ charged them.

Their mistake was picking an on chain order book. Every trade is public timestamped, and traceable. The same transparency that surfaces alpha surfaces the crime.

Federal charges. Play stupid games. https://x.com/WhaleFactor/status/2099918066784117149

## @harleyfoote_ (Harley Lewis Foote) · 09-16 18:29 · ♥80 ↻15 💬3 The Fed hiked 25bp. Crypto went UP. Here is why, and what usually happens next. 🏦🧵

THE SETUP

A hike was 88% priced on Polymarket at 18:00. Everyone knew. So the number was never the trade. The trade was the positioning into it: BTC came into the meeting −2.0% over five days, ETH −5.1%, both sitting on the lines we set before CPI (75,930 and 2,393). Funding positive, whales net short on both.

[STATEMENT LINE: one sentence on what the statement said, e.g. "The statement kept 'further firming' and gave no hint of a pause."]

THE FIRST 15 MINUTES

BTC 75,668 → 75,921 (+0.3%). Spiked to 76,547 in the first ten minutes, gave most of it back. ETH 2,386 → 2,406 (+0.8%). Spiked to 2,430, holding 2,400.

The liquidation tape tells you what that spike was. Six venues, the four-hour window covering the decision: • BTC: $36m of SHORTS liquidated, $4m of longs • ETH: $12m of shorts, $9m of longs

Nine times more BTC shorts were force-closed than longs. That is not buying. That is shorts being closed for them. A short liquidation is a forced buy, and a book that came into the meeting short gets bought on the print no matter what the print says.

WHO GOT CAUGHT, WHO DIDN'T

On Hyperliquid, whales did not flinch. ETH whale shorts went $1,029m → $1,041m through the spike. They ADDED. BTC whale shorts $1,112m → $1,105m, barely touched. New whale wallets since the decision bought $1m of ETH and sold nothing.

The crowd: ETH 42% long before, 42% long now. Binance retail 76% long. Open interest ETH $2.32bn → $2.35bn, BTC $2.83bn → $2.80bn.

So the squeeze cleared the small shorts and the big ones stayed. That matters for the next few days.

WHAT FED DAYS USUALLY DO

We keep the base rates. 68 meetings since 2019: • the Fed-day close is the low of the week only 22% of the time • the median bounce from the Fed-day low over the next five days is +3.4% • but the last 8 meetings: BTC red on the day 6 of 8, ETH 6 of 8, and LOWER a week later 7 of 8

The split that matters today: ETH came in DOWN 5% over five days. In the 30 meetings where ETH came in down, the five-day return after was a median +2.0% and negative only 33% of the time. Coming in sold is historically the better side of a Fed day. That is the honest counter-argument to anyone short here, us included.

THE LEVELS INTO FRIDAY

ETH: 20-day range 2,356–2,666. The line above is 2,533, the old range top. Below, 2,356 is the September low. Daily 200 EMA 2,171. 25 Sep options expiry max pain 2,200, 44% of all ETH options. BTC: 20-day range 74,903–82,268. Daily 200 EMA 72,095. 25 Sep max pain 72,000.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING

1. Does ETH close the day above 2,393, the pre-CPI line it lost this morning? If yes, the short squeeze had follow-through. If no, the spike was the whole move. 2. Whale shorts at $1.04bn. If they start covering, the +2% base case is on. If they add again into 2,430–2,533, it is the same book as before the meeting. 3. Friday's close against 2,533 and 82,268. The first hour of a Fed day is the trap more often than the trend. Friday is the tell.

Happy Hunting! 🫡 https://x.com/harleyfoote_/status/2100291072349847693