# IBIT inflow — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-19 22:06 UTC)
## @BlockDogg777 (BlockDogg) · 09-04 18:55 · ♥153 ↻3 💬11 📰Daily Tape📰
162K jobs.
A 4.80% 10Y.
Nearly 70% odds of another Fed hike.
BTC back below $80K.
The market got a stronger economy and sold the risk anyway.
That is the whole setup today.
📉 STOCKS :
Thursday close:
• S&P 500: 7,747.71, up 1.06% • Nasdaq: 26,584.06, up 1.40% • Dow: 53,686.11, up 1.18%
Friday intraday:
• S&P 500: down around 0.4% • Nasdaq Composite: down around 0.4% • Dow: down around 0.7% • Nasdaq 100: roughly flat
Yesterday traders bought the Fed pause.
Today they sold it back.
The S&P reaction is still controlled, but the bond market is sending the louder message.
• US 10Y: around 4.80% • US 2Y: around 4.40%
The 2Y is doing exactly what it should when the market starts pricing another hike.
🌍 MACRO:
August payrolls:
• Jobs added: 162K • Consensus: around 56K • Unemployment: 4.1% • Wage growth: 0.3% MoM • Wage growth: 3.1% YoY • Participation rate: 61.6% • June and July revisions: +55K combined
The headline beat consensus by 106K.
But the internals deserve attention.
• Restaurants and bars: +59K • Local government education: +42K • Combined: 101K
More than 60% of the net job gain came from those two areas.
Meanwhile, annual wage growth slowed to its weakest level since May 2021.
So this was a strong report.
It was not a clean overheating signal.
That distinction matters.
The Fed now has enough labor-market strength to keep its focus on inflation.
Market-implied September hike odds moved from roughly 55% before the report to around two-thirds afterward.
August CPI arrives September 11.
That print can still flip the entire trade.
🏛️ POLITICS:
Trump celebrated the strong jobs number and demanded lower interest rates anyway.
He also threatened to stop trading with countries that run trade surpluses against the US if rates are not lowered.
Strong employment.
More trade pressure. Lower rates. Markets cannot price all three as bullish without eventually finding a contradiction.
The US Treasury also sanctioned Türkiye-based Golden Global Bank and its subsidiaries.
Treasury says the bank helped move Iranian oil revenue from China into Türkiye, where it could be converted into cash and gold.
This is not background noise.
It links sanctions, trade policy, oil and inflation in one story.
🛢️ OIL:
• Brent: around $94 to $95 • WTI: around $90 • Brent: up more than 6% this week • WTI: up around 8% this week • US diesel prices: record high
Only four commodity vessels reportedly crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
The recent daily average was around 15.
Oil is lower today, but the supply risk has not disappeared.
A falling daily candle does not mean the geopolitical premium is gone.
Diesel is the number I care about most.
It feeds directly into freight, agriculture, construction and consumer prices.
Oil creates headlines.
Diesel spreads the damage.
₿ CRYPTO:
• bitcoin:native : around $79K • ethereum:native : around $2.45K • ripple:native : around $1.41
BTC traded above $81K before payrolls.
The jobs report pushed it back below $80K within hours.
Thursday’s US spot Bitcoin ETF flows:
• Net inflow: $730.9M • Largest daily inflow since January 14 • BlackRock IBIT: roughly $454M • Total ETF assets: around $103.3B
Read that again.
Wall Street allocated more than $730M to spot Bitcoin ETFs in one session.
BTC still lost $80K after one macro print.
That does not mean the institutional bid is fake.
It means the marginal price is still controlled by liquidity, yields and leverage.
🧠 MY TAKE:
The market is trying to price a soft landing, another Fed hike and an oil shock at the same time.
That combination is unstable.
I am still constructive on BTC.
I am not constructive on chasing it with leverage before CPI.
My playbook:
• BTC daily close above $80K: constructive • BTC below $78K with the 10Y above 4.80%: defensive • Cooler CPI and falling yields: add risk on confirmation • Hot CPI and Brent holding above $95: protect capital
Trading desks relearn the same expensive lesson every cycle.
When the market is arguing with itself, position size matters more than conviction.
The ETF bid is real.
The macro risk is real too.
The winner will be decided next Friday. https://x.com/BlockDogg777/status/2095948766855790938
## @BlockDogg777 (BlockDogg) · 09-02 19:29 · ♥122 ↻1 💬0 📰Daily Tape📰
Oil is becoming the Fed’s shadow rate hike!
BTC can survive a weak jobs print.
It cannot ignore $96 Brent and a 4.79% US 10Y forever.
Everyone is watching the next crypto candle while the real trade is being decided outside crypto.
📈 STOCKS:
Around 1:30 PM ET:
• S&P 500: +0.4% • Nasdaq: +0.3% • Dow: +0.4% • Nvidia: +3.6% • Meta: +2.4% • Dell: +9.2%
Tech, communications and financials are leading the bounce.
The index level looks healthy.
But this feels more like relief after two weak sessions than the start of a fresh liquidity wave.
🌍 MACRO:
• ADP payrolls: +38K • Expected: +47K • Weakest ADP print since January • US 10Y: 4.79% • US 2Y: 4.38% • September Fed hike odds: 64% • Brent: $95.91 • DXY: 99.85 • Gold: around $4,300
Hiring is slowing while energy keeps inflation risk alive.
That is the exact combination central bankers hate.
Weak economic data usually helps risk assets.
Not when oil is doing the tightening for the Fed.
🏛️ POLITICS:
The US and Iran just had their biggest exchange of fire since July.
Iran says two tankers struck mines near the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington says shipping continues and more than 17 million barrels exited on Monday.
Iran has now blacklisted 56 vessels.
Before the war, Hormuz handled roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments.
The market is trading the risk, not the press release.
Meanwhile, Chevron plans to invest more than $7 billion in Venezuela over five years and more than double production to roughly 600K barrels per day.
That matters long term.
It does nothing for today’s oil shock.
₿ CRYPTO:
• BTC: around $76.8K • ETH: around $2.4K • BTC: -1.5% over 24 hours • US spot BTC ETFs: -$236M • IBIT alone: -$201M • Ether ETFs: roughly +$11M • ETH ETF inflow streak: 12 sessions
Bitcoin has pulled back from roughly $81K, but accumulation has not disappeared.
Glassnode’s cohort score remains at 0.64.
Buyers are still there.
They are simply becoming less aggressive.
🎯 MY TAKE:
This is a trader’s market, not an investor victory lap.
Experienced desks do not try to predict every geopolitical headline.
They cut size when oil, bonds and FX all start moving against risk at the same time.
My line in the sand is $75K.
If BTC holds that level through ETF outflows, a stronger dollar and $96 oil, I call that genuine strength.
If $75K fails while yields stay elevated, leverage becomes the next seller.
I remain constructive long term.
Short term, I want confirmation before conviction.
Survive the noise first.
The clean opportunities usually appear after everyone else runs out of margin. https://x.com/BlockDogg777/status/2095232756682822008
## @Thaogttm05 (Giang Thị Minh Thảo) · 08-24 11:26 · ♥32 ↻0 💬29 ⚡ 30s EXECUTIVE TL;DR (RADAR THỊ TRƯỜNG)
Trạng thái dòng tiền: Cả 3 dòng sản phẩm Bitcoin (+307.50M USD), Ethereum (+184.00M USD) và Solana (+10.00M USD) đều đồng thuận bùng nổ sắc xanh Mua ròng (Inflow), chốt tuần giao dịch với khối lượng nạp ròng mạnh mẽ.
Tín hiệu kỹ thuật: Lực mua gom áp đảo từ BlackRock (IBIT & ETHA) dẫn dắt đà tăng trưởng, củng cố vững chắc nền giá BTC trên $64,000 và tiếp thêm động lực bứt phá cho ETH và SOL. Tâm lý tổ chức (Institutional Score): 8.8/10, Lạc quan & Mở rộng quy mô giải ngân (Strong Inflow Momentum).
📊 BÁO CÁO CẬP NHẬT SPOT ETF 21/08/2026 (Dữ liệu tổng hợp từ Farside Investors, SoSoValue & CoinGlass)
🔷 Bitcoin Spot ETF: • Tổng Netflow: 🟢 +307.50 M USD (lực mua bùng nổ mạnh mẽ, ngày thứ 5 mua ròng liên tiếp) • Gom mạnh nhất: IBIT (+239.30M USD) & FBTC (+30.20M USD) • Xả mạnh nhất: Không ghi nhận rút vốn lớn
🔶 Ethereum Spot ETF: • Tổng Netflow: 🟢 +184.00 M USD (lực mua tăng tốc bứt phá, ngày thứ 7 mua ròng liên tiếp) • Gom mạnh nhất: ETHA (+150.80M USD) & ETH (+11.50M USD) • Xả mạnh nhất: Không ghi nhận
🟣 Solana Spot ETF: • Tổng Netflow: 🟢 +10.00 M USD (tiếp tục duy trì sắc xanh nạp ròng tích cực) • Gom mạnh nhất: GSOL (+8.70M USD) & BSOL (+1.30M USD) • Xả mạnh nhất: Không ghi nhận
🔄 Xu hướng 7 ngày: Bitcoin ETF tích lũy ròng bùng nổ (+1,241.5M USD), Ethereum ETF tích lũy ròng bứt phá (+499.5M USD), Solana ETF tích lũy ròng (+28.7M USD). https://x.com/Thaogttm05/status/2091849562432626900
## @ct_central (CryptoTraders.com) · 08-31 00:31 · ♥14 ↻19 💬6 Rates are back in the driver's seat: hawkish repricing just knocked $BTC 3.3% and flipped hike odds from 35% to 56%.
1⃣ Macro risk is the tape. Warsh's comments pushed rate-hike odds from ~35% to 56% and BTC dropped 3.3% in the move. Yen shorts have unwound sharply, USD/JPY recovered to 160.20, but renewed BOJ tightening or a persistent yen rally could still trigger broader margin selling.
2⃣ ETH leverage is a one-way door. A 38,000 ETH long on Hyperliquid is 5.03% of that venue's ETH open interest, versus just 0.41% across exchanges. A deeper selloff could liquidate that wallet by wallet, routing extra market sells into an already thin book.
3⃣ Flows are broadening beyond BTC. U.S. spot BTC ETFs took in $3.04B over nine positive sessions, with IBIT grabbing ~76%. But spot SOL products pulled $153.88M in five sessions, lifting SOL's share of combined BTC/ETH/SOL flows from 1.1% to 8.1%, with BSOL staking 64.6% of that inflow and reducing available supply.
The macro bid is fragile, ETH leverage is concentrated, and SOL's flow story is quietly building. Which of these three risks do you think the market is most under-pricing? https://x.com/ct_central/status/2094221430783373469