# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-13 12:13 UTC)
## @imnotharsh (ImNotHarsh | 📈💸) · 09-12 21:44 · ♥32 ↻7 💬7 I have a counter to FinX calling for some bubble pop in AI stocks due to Dario's essay. The essay today is being read as a halt, but that is not really the goal here.
Dario literally says, "...pacing does not mean halting model training or technical progress, but ensuring companies take adequate time to align and safeguard their models, and for third party evaluators to confirm this."
That just means it is best to have auditors in the building and it DOES NOT change anything with the GPUs, CPUs and data centers to house them, which are still needed to run the demand that exists even years out.
Anthropic is committing to embedded third-party evaluators. Sam says OpenAI will match the evaluator step. Elon says Dario is right. None of that is a training freeze. None of that is an IPO cancellation. None of that is a capex holiday by the hyperscalers. No one is stopping spending. Let's be real.
The market mistake is treating a process change as a demand shock for silicon. It is not.
Who still buys the chips:
- Hyperscalers. AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta. Cluster buildouts are multi-year. They do not pause because a lab added desks for METR. - Anthropic. Claude still trains. Evaluators sit on the same campus as the next run. - OpenAI. Same. - xAI. Same. - Every other frontier lab that is not going to unilaterally surrender the frontier to a peer that kept training.
Safety work is compute-positive in the near term, not compute-negative. Alignment, evals, red-team, interpretability, and “take more time between capability jumps” still burn tokens and still sit on HBM, networking, and foundry capacity. A year of slower *release cadence* with the same or higher *training and inference load* is a semiconductor bull case, not a cut.
If someone wants a real demand break they need cancelled GPU orders, delayed data-center energization, or hyperscalers guiding capex down.
Today’s note does not do that. It literally says keep training, add auditors, ask Washington for a coordination waiver, keep the U.S. lead.
Read the sentence he wrote. Then look at who is still building clusters. Those are not the same trade. https://x.com/imnotharsh/status/2098890440972075047