# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 07:42 UTC)
## @mofmof_investor (もふ社長@もふもふ不動産もふ) · 10-01 06:30 · ♥57 ↻3 💬0 マイクロン決算強かった…重要なのは「AI需要」より“供給が追いつかない”こと。
・DRAM/NANDとも2027〜28年まで供給制約継続 ・DRAMは需要成長＞供給成長の構造的ギャップ ・需給がいつ均衡するか「見通せない」 ・27年HBMの大部分は既に契約済み ・FY27生産量の75%以上が顧客コミット済み ・長期契約26件、2030年までの売上35%以上をカバー ・顧客コミットメント320億ドル、大部分が現金預託
CapExも増額するが、増加分の大半は2028年後半以降に効く工場・クリーンルーム建設。
つまり「価格が上がったから即増産」ではなく、顧客の長期契約と前払いを背景に増産投資。
メモリ不足、想像以上に長引く可能性がある。 > 引用 @mofmof_investor: 月末にマイクロンの決算が…前回はとんでもない目にあったけど、だいぶ株価が回復してきた…どんな決算になるのかドキドキしてます。一方でキオクシアは…😇サンディスクも回復してるのになぜこんなに差がつくのか？😂またマイクロン祈願するかな… https://t.co/yEJdw8CVOS https://x.com/mofmof_investor/status/2105545884129964382
## @lilNocka (Nock Rogan) · 10-01 04:34 · ♥34 ↻6 💬3 we might be massively underestimating how much compute the world is about to have.
the ai industry is pouring hundreds of billions into gpus, servers and data centers, yet a lot of that hardware still isn't being used efficiently all the time. google alone expects $175b to $185b in 2026 capex, with around 60% going toward servers, while research presented at usenix found that gpu capacity can become stranded because of scheduling, networking and other infrastructure constraints.
this is one reason i'm paying attention to @nockchain. with ai proof of useful work, inference providers can merge mine workloads they're already running with nockchain, meaning the same hardware can perform useful ai work while also helping secure the network. just three weeks after the first ai pow block, base:0x9b5e262cf9bb04869ab40b19af91d2dc85761722 reported a peak work rate of 19.6 examac/s, roughly 19,600 h100 equivalents at dense int8.
now think about the amount of compute that is going to exist as ai keeps scaling. more data centers, more enterprise hardware, more research clusters and more specialized machines. nock doesn't need to own all of that hardware. the hardware is already being built and the compute is already happening. the bigger question is whether that compute can be made useful for more than one purpose.
that's the part i find so bullish about base:0x9b5e262cf9bb04869ab40b19af91d2dc85761722. it's not trying to win by building another giant gpu farm. it's trying to create an economic system where compute can do useful work and help secure a network at the same time.
if compute becomes one of the world's most valuable resources, i want to own a piece of the infrastructure being built around it.
nockmilio. https://x.com/lilNocka/status/2105516664502751575
## @1CoastalJournal (The Coastal Journal) · 09-30 23:23 · ♥32 ↻7 💬3 Micron showing AI memory peak?
📦 Inventory +21% in a “shortage”? 💰 ASP growth cooling fast 🏭 CapEx nearly doubled 📈 FY27 EPS still priced for ~$160
Is scarcity peaking before demand does for $MU ? Details: https://t.co/QsMeHqjv2a https://t.co/ibg9WfIc33 https://x.com/1CoastalJournal/status/2105438526519283911