# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-02 14:15 UTC)
## @memorycowmoo (the memory cow) · 10-02 11:49 · ♥46 ↻6 💬50 gMOO🐮
Now that we've officially kicked off MOO's liquidity layer formation, let's not forget the bigger picture above all - Memory Supercycle
One of the most important takeaways from Micron earnings call is that the global memory supply is expected to be even tighter throughout 2027 - 28, and highly plausible to extend further💀
This is due to the physical constraints, the limited production capacity (only 3 companies globally can reliably produce HBM), coupled with the strong demand from data centers and advanced GPUs (not even counting DRAM and NAND for regular consumer devices)
Moore's Law no longer applies to the Memory market.
Moo that > 引用 @gajria: AI demand will grow. Compute demand will grow. Memory demand will grow.
AI will get cheaper. Compute will get cheaper. Memory will get cheaper.
Antithetical to consensus, but both ends can be, and will be, simultaneously true. https://x.com/memorycowmoo/status/2105988482434838746
## @Abbycadabby87 (Abby) · 10-02 13:03 · ♥71 ↻3 💬2 Storage makers are all adding capacity, yet $MU expects supply to be even tighter versus demand in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026.
That line is more interesting to me than another headline about prices going up.
Today I also saw that Toshiba plans to invest about ¥60 billion and double its AI data center HDD capacity by FY2027. $STX and $WDC were under pressure premarket.
The market sees strong demand, but it also worries that more supply could kill the scarcity premium.
That’s why I keep saying AI demand growth is only half the story. Profits still depend on how quickly supply catches up.
New factories don’t hit full output the day construction ends. They still need time to ramp up and pass customer checks.
HBM keeps taking up wafer capacity, while HDD supply is also growing.
Storage is still a great AI trade, but HBM and HDD need to be judged separately. What matters is usable capacity and margins.
By the way, I woke up and saw that Samsung had raised prices for the S26 series too.
Storage inflation has officially reached the phone bill. Apparently, buying a phone early counts as buying the dip too 😂 https://x.com/Abbycadabby87/status/2106007048563446019
## @PhotonCap (Photon Capital) · 10-01 22:45 · ♥30 ↻6 💬1 The Silicon Photonics Foundry Layer: Who Can Actually Make a PIC https://x.com/PhotonCap/status/2105791194173526473