# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-24 09:34 UTC)
## @trevornoren (Trevor Noren) · 09-23 20:58 · ♥39 ↻4 💬3 Goldman: "Almost half of S&P 500 growth in EPS in 2026 comes from AI investment. The largest US hyperscaler companies are on track to spend $800b on capital expenditures this year, an increase of 94% over 2025. That money is flowing through the earnings of chipmakers, tech hardware suppliers, industrial firms, and utilities. There are second-order effects too. The boom has lifted capital markets activity and supported consumer spending through rising household wealth. However, both consensus and Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts show hyperscaler capex growing at a slower rate in coming years. In the meantime, the hyperscalers’ equipment carries depreciation charges that keep climbing as spending growth slows. This will further dampen the boost of AI investment spending to S&P 500 earnings growth."
Whether it's enterprise adoption, unit economics, or data center buildout challenges, I see myriad threats to market expectations about how soon and at what scale AI will deliver ROI. But even beyond the viability of AI ROI, AI-trade outperformance faces structural headwinds and it's not just comps. To quote my recent report on "The AI Trade" (https://t.co/wQQNniS2kj):
"Comps are a significant concern for US equities over the next 12 months. UBS has estimated that hyperscaler AI CAPEX will increase roughly 75% this year, 25% next year, and only 6% in 2028. That rate-of-change slowdown will certainly hit the semiconductor industry the hardest. However, we also believe market participants have neglected the impact circular spending is having on hyperscaler growth and the trickle-down impact to companies across sectors. As the rate of increase decreases, we expect earnings growth to broadly slow. And that’s before considering how everything we’ve laid out in this report could lead to spending that falls below estimates.
The comp headwind will be paired with another headwind: a spike in equity supply. In the run-up to SpaceX’s IPO, the surge in new equity supply grabbed headlines. That concern has since fallen off given SpaceX’s IPO did not have a measurable downside impact on the market. However, we wouldn’t take a short-term pullback in concern as evidence of long-term irrelevance. YTD, IPOs have raised $137b, putting this year on pace to far exceed the previous record—$156b in 2021. Added to that is the new supply coming from tech giants. In June, Alphabet alone raised ~$85b in the largest public stock sale in history. New supply is set to only increase over the next year. More mega-IPOs are coming. Meanwhile, 90- to 180-day lockup periods will expire, and selling by insiders, employees, and pre-IPO investors usually translates to more new supply than the IPO itself. Investors shouldn’t underestimate how that new supply could exacerbate a market downturn if AI sentiment dips and drags on inflows."
Chart link: https://t.co/AK0P0ll6Xk https://x.com/trevornoren/status/2102865303298588829
## @qinbafrank (qinbafrank) · 09-24 07:58 · ♥33 ↻2 💬4 长债收益率飙升对美股有没有影响？会怎么体现出来？其实影响就在下面两张图：1）受损组：标普等权和道指从8月下旬以来持续走低；2）扛住还是创新高：标普和纳指8月下旬到上周中也是震荡小跌，过去一周强势反弹，纳指更强势（油价见顶预期驱动宏观缓和）。这是为何？
个人角度核心逻辑是： 1）十年美债飙升对市场有影响，而且影响很大；只是它没有表现为三大指数一起崩，而是表现为结构化杀估值； 2）利率敏感、盈利弹性弱的传统行业（道指）和标普等权篮子，承受的是“分母上升 + 分子不强”的双重压力，所以先跌5–10个点这种小级别； 3）AI半导体能抗，不是因为它们估值低或不怕贴现率，而是因为资本开支和AI基建潮把半导体分子端抬到了足以抵消分母冲击的程度； 4）纳指强、标普尚可、道指和等权弱，既是基本面分化，也是指数编制放大后的结果。真正强的是“卖铲人”，不是所有科技。 5）分化的核心 分母在压估值，但分子在半导体这边被大幅上修；利率在压“倍数”，AI资本开支在抬“盈利”。 谁的盈利上修更快，谁就能在更高利率下继续涨或少跌。
核心就是市场在用更高的折现率，重新筛选谁配拥有长久期估值： 通过筛选的是那些盈利预期仍在被大幅上修、且拥有真实供给约束的AI基础设施公司； 没通过筛选的，就是普通周期股和利率敏感股。
如果后续要盯领先指标，更要同时看三件事： 1）半导体前瞻EPS修订方向、 2）hyperscaler capex指引有没有松动 3）以及10年期实际利率有没有继续创新高。
简单说就是基本面强，那么宏观压制就是小跌或者震荡、宏观压制一缓解就能往上冲。
之前8月下旬提出“秋意渐凉”：大盘指数8月下旬就开始进入动荡。道指、标普等权持续阴跌，标普500和纳指在8月下旬到9月16号之前也在阴跌、9月16号之后因为油价见顶预期局势平静有一波强劲的反攻。
之前梳理8月底秋意渐凉的推文，提到看基本面强的逢低买，看宏观拐点等待关键因素的减弱。https://t.co/BItUnlKKj7
9月17号认为市场开始交易油价见顶，局势平静，未来一周资产📈。能涨上来的还是基本面强势的资产，或者强政策驱动的。 https://t.co/Ees5ERuyio
昨晚也聊到市场从上周以来的反攻到了要预期兑现的阶段了、之前几个交易日强预期驱动。但联大开始开会、习访美正式出行，市场就要开始看之前缓和的预期是不是真的能兑现。
本条由@bitget_zh赞助，「Bitget 买美股：秒级入场，丝滑交易 > 引用 @qinbafrank: 昨晚对市场影响最大的是长债收益率的飙升，US10y到5.12%，US30y到5.41%。油价只是小涨不是昨晚长债收益率飙升的主要因素，驱动逻辑是： 1、超预期热经济数据 标普全球9月PMI远超预期，显示美国私营部门活动加速扩张： 1）综合PMI升至58.4（前值56.0），为2021年7月以来最高（逾五年高点）； 2）服务业PMI升至58.7（前值56.5，预期约56），近五年最强； 3）制造业PMI升至57.0左右（前值约53.9，预期约53.6），逾四年最强。 新订单（尤其是国内需求）强劲，就业增长为四年多来最快，积压订单上升。但输入成本通胀因能源价格飙升而加剧（为2022年10月以来最高），供应链压力和产能不足也推高价格，数据指向第三季度年化增长可能达4-5%。
这让市场认为经济韧性过强、通胀粘性难消，美联储需要进一步紧缩。联邦基金期货显示10月加息25基点概率从前日约53%升至64%-73%。 这是昨晚长债收益率飙升的直接催化剂；
2、美联储理事Barr发表鹰派讲话：上周加息是“重新校准”政策（此前“立场偏离”），通胀风险上升而劳动力市场风险下降，基线情景下“很可能需要进一步政策调整”以确保通胀及时回落至2%目标。通胀仍高于目标且未明确下行。这强化了市场对后续加息的定价。 这是次要因素， 油价小涨也只是第三权重了。
短期来看，强数据和鹰派言论使“更高更久”叙事强化，收益率可能维持高位或进一步测试： 1）看后续ISM数据或油价再涨，上行压力仍在。 2）但若外交上进展缓解能源溢价，或增长放缓迹象出现，长债收益率才能真正回落；
8月下旬聊到的长债收益率的结构性问题：https://t.co/1Zk9fGfdda
本条由@bitget_zh赞助，「Bitget 买美股：秒级入场，丝滑交易 https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2103031394696142878