# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 06:04 UTC)
## @gujarat_plus_ (Gujarat Plus) · 10-01 05:13 · ♥70 ↻4 💬0 Ahmedabad’s 1,000-bed Health City could reset private hospital pricing. 🔥🔥
Blueprint: 🔹 Shantigram ecosystem under Adani Health Ventures: multi-super-specialty care, medical education, research, digital health 🔹 ₹6,000+ Cr philanthropic commitment plus in-house EPC cut capex per bed, build time and procurement costs 🔹 Mayo Clinic Global Consulting for clinical pathways, infection control and AI diagnostics 🔹 On-site medical college, nursing school and step-down units curb payroll and ICU costs 🔹 Spoke network: GAIMS Bhuj, rural tele-diagnostics, airport-linked medical travel
Affordable care needs an engineering-driven rethink of capacity, supply chains and clinical workflows. https://x.com/gujarat_plus_/status/2105526545314136526
## @JuniorSahney (Ketan Sahney) · 09-30 19:33 · ♥52 ↻3 💬4 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐲 — 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 CMP 22620
After being bearish for two+ years and calling for a 20% cut towards 21K, I turned bullish for Sept at 24K temporarily — we had the largest recorded ever shorts in history by FIIs; Nifty RSI was oversold in the mid 20s; PCR was at 0.6; the MMI ticker tape was in single digits, the number of stocks in the Nifty above their 20DMA was only 10%, mid terms in the US meant that Trump would not misbehave, and the broader indices were near ATHs.
This led me to believe that we could have a rally towards 24800+, instead we had the worst Sept series in 25 years 😢
Talk about being wrong and how. The Nifty remained oversold, FIIs kept on selling, and the broader markets too joined the Nifty on the downside.
Brent at 100 remained a headwind, DXY above 100 continued to be negative for emerging markets, and hardening global yields above 5% made investing in India for foreigners even less attractive especially considering the the depreciating rupee at 96.
You add the fact that we had the most erratic monsoon and some states already declared draught like situations.
The fact that we are only in the beginning of the rate hike cycle, including in India when the RBI meets next week only adds salt to its wounds.
We are already at the upper band of RBIs inflation threshold of 2-6%. Also, as I heard in an interview today, starting March of 2027, India has some 18 to 20 state elections one after another till the LS general elections in 2029.
This practically means, more freebies in the form of Ladli and ladla Yojnas, and we will have a government which will always fall short of capital.
Forget tax cuts, the government will find unique ways to introduce surrogate taxes to fund the many elections coming up.
By now we should know, that no matter who the ruling party, their job is to secure the spot for the next five years and worry about the aam janta later.
For foreigners, they have Asian and US markets whereby companies are reporting 80/90% increase in earnings on the back of AI trade and Capex expansion. Why would they come to India, which has corporate growth in the early teens.
Remember, Nifty has not had a negative closing since the past 10 years, and not been in a technical bear market since Covid in 2020.
Both seem very likely as we enter the final quarter of 2026 starting today.
𝐍𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐩 After a sucktember, it's highly unlikely that we have a f*uckober as well. But a lot will depend on macro indicators.
1. Auto sales numbers will come today. 2. RBI policy next week. 3. Quarterly updates and Q2 JAS results starting with the IT giants. 4. Trump tantrums which will decide whether we breakout towards 110 on crude, or break 90. 5. Festive spending, some of which can be gauged via online sales like Amazon Great Indian Sale, and Flipkart's big billion Sale.
Remember, everything in India is bought via EMI/BNPL. I have been talking about this for long, but we enter a period where debt servicing becomes a hurdle. You couple that with lack of job growth and wage increases, and we could be staring at a long winter.
𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬 While sell on upticks remains the path forward, but selling also requires patience and risk management. Incase of good quarterly results we could easily get a counter trend rally towards the July lows of 23600, also since India's equity underperformance has now become a national shame, who knows if the FinMin suddenly decides to give a Diwali gift in the form of capital market tax cuts.
In my 20+ career in the stock markets, I have never experienced such distaste with the current crop of our cabinet.
The ministers at the Centre can digest anything, but they cannot digest bad press. So while tax cuts or reforms are unlikely, there is always that 1% chance of good news coming from New Delhi which can cause a 1000 point rally in no time.
𝐓𝐋;𝐃𝐑— After a brief hiatus, my 21K target on the Nifty is back on the cards but we need to see the RBIs stance next week, Quarterly numbers, and a potential surprise gift from the PMO/FinMin before the end of 2026.
Base case remains to see 21k, but in the advent of good news, I will turn back bullish above 23600.
Fresh shorting, even if at all, must be done with proper hedging since much of the low hanging fruits have already been plucked.
After getting beaten black and blue, I will be looking to cut my position size and focus more on scalping, trying to catch intraday moves.
Also, over the last 24 hours, I have seen targets of 14K and 35K for the Nifty. These numbers serve no purpose and only gives the authors their 15 mins of wasteful fame.
Peace ✌️ > 引用 @JuniorSahney: 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐍𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐌𝐏 𝟐𝟒𝟎𝟓𝟎
Unless a global catastrophe happens, wherein all markets go down, I am leaning towards the camp of short US and long India.
One can just feel the selling exhaustion in India and bears are unable to break the Nifty beyond a point. Similar sentiment in US too. One can see buying exhaustion in the SPX, and new ATHs have been paused.
The feel good GDP numbers and mega IPOs of NSE and JIO Platforms may bring in some fresh foreign capital too.
Owing to mid terms, Trump ideally should remain a typing paper tiger on twitter and may not meaningfully do anything untowardly.
The rupee though week has also stopped hitting fresh lows. Earnings have been fine. Festivals have begun. Credit growth should pick up.
The headache remains Brent, if it sustains above 90-95$ then all bullish bets are off.
Stops for longs can be 23700. Targets can be the 5 month long congestion zone of 24400-800.
Medium term am still bearish and do not see ATHs this year, but just for the interim, I am buying the dips.
Peace✌️ https://x.com/JuniorSahney/status/2105380546054684736
## @mamimumemo_kabu (まみ💎握力ゴリラ🦍) · 10-01 03:04 · ♥50 ↻3 💬3 $MU マイクロン アナリスト向けコールで追加情報👀
まず中国勢。
FY2027の中国向け売上比率は 1桁台まで低下見込み。
そして技術面では、 中国競合に対して少なくとも2世代先行との認識🥳
SCAもさらに具体化。
DRAMは2030年までのビット約35%弱 NANDは約35%強をカバー。
しかも直近の新規契約は、 今の高いメモリ価格を反映して交渉中。
さらにNVIDIA向けNV-HBMは 1年以上共同開発していて、 HBM4Eはファウンドリプロセスを使ったカスタム設計。
そして大事なのがCAPEX。
FY27に投資を増やしても、 大半は2028年以降に使うクリーンルーム建設。
つまり
CAPEX増 → すぐ供給過剰
ではない。
しかも今はメモリ不足で、 AIラックの搭載量を抑えている顧客もいるらしく、 供給が増えればすぐ使われる潜在需要もあるとのこと。
DRAMがデータセンター最大の制約になりつつあるとの説明まで出ました。
2027〜2028年も メモリ強気シナリオは継続だよ🚀 https://x.com/mamimumemo_kabu/status/2105494078981132684