# Bitcoin — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-17 04:37 UTC)
## @AdamBLiv (Adam Livingston) · 09-16 22:02 · ♥308 ↻25 💬26 Bitcoin's next halving is 575 days out.
So I ran the identical 575-day window ahead of the last three halvings.
→ 2016 halving: +84% → 2020 halving: +39% → 2024 halving: +237%
Median +84%. From today's $75.5k that's ~$139,000.
But that +39% needs an asterisk the size of a building.
That window was tracking +68% into Feb 14, 2020. Then COVID. March 12 printed -39% in a single day.
It fell to $4,842, below where the window started, with 58 days left on the clock.
It still closed the window green.
Take out the one global liquidity event no model on earth contained, and the median of the other two is +160%.
Also, all three start dates landed BEFORE the bottom.
Every one bled first at -51%, -49%, -18% - with lows landing 33, 62 and 59 days later.
This time is different because we already printed $58.5k on June 30.
That's 78 days ahead of schedule, and the drawdown was -53% instead of -80%.
Either the map is early, or the cycle just got quieter.
n=3 (n=2 if you're honest about 2020).
Small sample size and not financial advice, but the historical data is interesting: https://x.com/AdamBLiv/status/2100344524736487882
## @BTCCexchange (BTCC) · 09-17 02:06 · ♥327 ↻12 💬30 Gm until $BTC hit 120k again☕️ https://t.co/VVNxrNFK8f https://x.com/BTCCexchange/status/2100405979355730168
## @DTAPCAP (Dan Tapiero) · 09-16 23:28 · ♥302 ↻17 💬26 I do not see how this ends well.
Unclear how it resolves.
All happening too close to election.
Expect Warsh/Trump tension.
Only AI mega bull trend can overshadow but unclear that it will.
Basic business will have difficulty with real yields at 30yr highs.
Btc as safe haven. https://t.co/v9MX7qDTEc https://x.com/DTAPCAP/status/2100366173447549079