# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-09 16:14 UTC)

## @refrip98 (refky.eth) · 10-09 13:58 · ♥100 ↻3 💬96 Traditional mapping needs vehicles, specialized cameras, and scheduled routes. Stairwells, loading docks, and warehouse corridors often get left out. @vangrid_io takes a different approach.

According to their docs, an edge node is simply the phone of someone running the capture app. No hardware to ship, no fleet to maintain, and no installation required. The sensor is already in someone’s pocket, so there’s no sensor capex.

Coverage follows people rather than pre-installed infrastructure. It’s densest in metro areas, where robots, logistics, and infrastructure monitoring need more detailed data. Outside major urban centers, coverage is thinner. Missing areas aren’t filled with synthetic data. Buyers post bounties, and contributors compete to capture them.

Getting started is simple too. The app runs in a browser without installation or on Android through the Play Store. The same app works for both. A wallet serves as your login, with no email needed. An invite code is only required to upload data, not to browse bounties.

For Physical AI, this is the difference between maps built by fleets and maps that can be requested for specific locations.

Before building a production workflow, the docs recommend checking AOI coverage by contacting hello https://t.co/9296jHpeRV. https://x.com/refrip98/status/2108557752281010396

## @KrisPatel99 (Kris Patel 🇺🇸) · 10-09 14:03 · ♥56 ↻0 💬8 AI CAPEX WARNING RADAR 10/9/2026 https://t.co/nF1UGteOyV https://x.com/KrisPatel99/status/2108558900828025100

## @connorkapoor (Connor Kapoor) · 10-09 15:14 · ♥31 ↻6 💬4 I fixed this graph by A16Z.

One Trillion spent on AI Capex in 2026, the story isn't in chips alone.

For every $100 flowing into the supply chain - $2.5 to castings - $1 to forgings - $3.6 to sheet metal parts - $2 to Plastic - $2.4 to CNC machining

without these manufacturing technologies, the rest isn't even possible. > 引用 @a16z: Where does money invested into the AI buildout actually go?

For every $100 flowing into the supply chain: - $50 to chips - $20 to power - $15 to networking - $15 to cooling, buildings, and land

More charts in State of Markets II: https://t.co/MTaxKUxa2w https://t.co/f0t2IBuBaV https://x.com/connorkapoor/status/2108576853061472386

## @cmagurvinder (CMA Gurvinder Malhotra) · 10-09 13:16 · ♥30 ↻6 💬3 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗠𝗘 — 𝟭𝟱 🏭

𝗝𝗔𝗬𝗞𝗔𝗬 𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗣𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗘𝗦

CMP: ₹230 Market Cap: ₹3,466 Cr

A company incorporated in Kanpur in 1961 now makes components for BrahMos missiles and hip implants.

Its revenue nearly tripled last year.

And its biggest manufacturing complex hasn't been built yet.

🏭 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝟰𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗦𝗤 𝗙𝗧 𝗕𝗨𝗜𝗟𝗗

🔹 Ultra-modern manufacturing complex at Devanahalli, North Bengaluru 🔹 200,000 sq ft for precision manufacturing 🔹 100,000 sq ft additive manufacturing centre, designed for 80–100 industrial metal 3D printers 🔹 50,000 sq ft dedicated to R&D 🔹 Civil construction targeted for December 2026, full project completion by Q4 2027 🔹 Rights issue underway, primarily to fund the expansion

Jaykay is moving beyond components into finished defence systems, missile parts, aerospace structures and underwater platforms.

It already supplies BrahMos Aerospace, Bharat Dynamics, HAL, BEL, BARC, NSTL and ADA.

Its Hyderabad composites plant was completed during the year.

The much larger Bengaluru complex is still under construction.

📈 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗜𝗦 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚

The transformation isn't limited to defence components.

The company has expanded into:

🔹 Large composite structures and underwater systems following the Cherlapally expansion 🔹 Orthopaedic implants — Peenya facility built, certified and in trial production 🔹 Warheads, bulkheads and shells through the Patange Industries acquisition in April 2026 🔹 AI orchestration software through its JIVA platform

Patient-specific implants also entered commercial production and delivery during the year.

💰 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗛𝗔𝗦 𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗚𝗘𝗗

FY24: ₹72 Cr spent

FY25: ₹49 Cr spent

FY26: ₹34 Cr spent

Together, that's five times the value of the company's entire fixed-asset base three years ago.

Unfinished plant increased from ₹7 Cr to ₹60 Cr in two years as work began at Devanahalli.

Borrowings remain just ₹39 Cr, with the new complex being funded primarily through a rights issue rather than debt.

🎯 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧'𝗦 𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧?

The next 12 months are about execution:

🔹 Complete Devanahalli's civil construction by December 2026 🔹 Complete the rights issue funding the complex 🔹 Integrate Patange's warheads and shells business 🔹 Move orthopaedic implants from trials to commercial scale 🔹 Convert defence qualification programmes into production orders

FY26 total income rose 185% to ₹282 Cr.

EBITDA before exceptional items jumped 274% to ₹67 Cr.

Management targets full project completion by Q4 2027.

📊 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗡𝗨𝗠𝗕𝗘𝗥𝗦

🏷️ 16% below its 52-week high of ₹273

The business has delivered:

95% Sales CAGR over 10 years 196% revenue growth in FY26 274% growth in operating earnings

All while expanding from components into defence systems, implants and digital manufacturing.

But reported profit needs context.

FY26 profit of ₹216 Cr was largely driven by a non-cash gain from the fair valuation of investments.

Profit before exceptional items was ₹45 Cr.

ROE stands at 3.6%, while the stock trades at roughly 85× earnings.

🔄 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬

The interesting part is the sequence:

𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 → 𝟰𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗦𝗤 𝗙𝗧 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗣𝗟𝗘𝗫 → 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗜𝗦𝗜𝗢𝗡 & 𝗔𝗗𝗗𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗔𝗖𝗜𝗧𝗬 → 𝗗𝗘𝗙𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗘 𝗢𝗥𝗗𝗘𝗥𝗦 → 𝗣𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗚𝗜𝗡 𝗜𝗠𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧

Jaykay sits earlier in the capex cycle than many companies in this series.

The spending is still ahead of the business, and the key test will be whether the new capacity translates into production orders and sustainable returns.

𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗖𝗬𝗖𝗟𝗘 → 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗔𝗖𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 → 𝗕𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗢𝗡

That's the part I'm tracking.

Educational purposes only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.

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𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗠𝗘 — 𝟭𝟱

More companies from the CAPEX cycle coming next. https://x.com/cmagurvinder/status/2108547248606855332