# semiconductor guidance — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-28 18:35 UTC)
## @TheBigBerbowski (TheBigBerbowski) · 09-28 11:43 · ♥41 ↻2 💬4 $AVGO’s sell-off could be a buying opportunity, not because the risks disappeared, but because expectations may have reset faster than the underlying business.
At roughly $353, $AVGO trades at:
- 26.6× adjusted run-rate P/E - 18.3× FY2027 consensus P/E - 11.6× FY2028 consensus P/E The recent concern is mostly about near-term guidance, lower margins as AI hardware becomes a larger part of the mix, and customer concentration.
But the underlying AI business is still accelerating. AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7B last quarter, +221% YoY, and management expects $21.7B in Q4, +236% YoY. Broadcom also generated $13.7B of free cash flow in Q3 alone.
What I don't like about $AVGO: 55% of quarterly revenue comes from its top five end customers, AI hardware carries lower margins than software, and expectations around custom AI accelerators are already extremely high.
IMO, increasingly interesting at today's price if you believe hyperscaler AI spending remains strong. The valuation looks much less demanding once you move beyond the next 12 months. https://x.com/TheBigBerbowski/status/2104537535678476629