# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-20 05:44 UTC)
## @gherkinit (Pi-Fi) · 09-19 18:41 · ♥146 ↻34 💬5 Automated Bailouts https://x.com/gherkinit/status/2101381245947322391
## @neilsethinew (Neil Sethi NEW account) · 09-19 12:30 · ♥114 ↻31 💬0 Goldman: The AI investment boom is driving nearly half of S&P 500 EPS growth this year, but its contribution will fade going forward.
The mega-cap US hyperscalers are on track to spend $800 billion on capex this year, an increase of 94% vs. 2025. That spending is flowing through to the earnings of the AI infrastructure complex...The AI boom is also having a secondary impact on earnings outside of the infrastructure complex, for example by boosting capital markets activity and consumer wealth.
Both consensus and GS analyst forecasts show hyperscaler capex growing at a slower rate in coming years, which should result in decelerating earnings growth for much of the AI infrastructure complex and a fading tailwind to S&P 500 earnings. > 引用 @neilsethinew: Goldman: The degree to which the US equity market is currently "expensive" depends in large part on the sustainability of recent earnings strength.
The exceptional recent strength of earnings has driven an unusual wedge between equity valuation multiples based on near-term earnings and valuations on trend earnings.
Because equity prices have failed to keep pace with surging earnings, near-term valuations show no hint of a bubble: The S&P 500 12-month P/E ratio has declined from 23x a year ago to 19x today and now matches its 10-year average.
However, even an "average" multiple may be expensive if current earnings are unsustainable. The cyclically-adjusted P/E based on trailing 10-year earnings has climbed to one of its highest levels on record, falling shy of the highs of 1999-2000 but surpassing the level reached in 2021.
Similarly, our colleagues have argued that the increase in market value of AI companies during the last few years requires an optimistic estimate of the future magnitude of AI-related profits and who will capture them.
Affirming investor concerns that US companies are "over-earning," there are three factors that are boosting earnings today but will contribute to deceleration going forward: 1) AI capex spending, 2) semiconductor margin expansion, and 3) earnings from private investment gains. https://x.com/neilsethinew/status/2101287695335010357