- Bitcoin is on track for its first July-to-September winning streak since 2012.

- The 2012 streak was followed by a 9.7% October decline and a rally of more than 2,000% from the monthly low.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price rose by 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August, according data source CoinDesk. September is also in positive territory, with prices trading 10.9% higher at $86,140 as of this writing.

The only prior such instance dates back to 2012 when prices rose 41.0%, 6.4% and 24.4% in those respective months.

October then broke that streak, with bitcoin falling 9.7% for the month. But the decline bottomed out at $10.17 on Oct. 26, and it was from that low that bitcoin launched into one of the largest rallies in its history, a 165-day run that carried price to $230 by April 2013, a gain of more than 2,000%, according to CoinDesk's analysis of daily price data.

Whether this year follows a similar path – a red October followed by a big bull run – or takes a different route entirely, isn't something the 2012 precedent can settle on its own. The sample size is too small. Bitcoin has been trading from at least late 2010 and since then, this pattern has shown up only once. So, there isn’t enough repetition to draw a meaningful conclusion about what happens next.

Still, the setup is noteworthy because of its rarity, the outsized rally that followed the 2012 example and bitcoin’s broader four-year market cycle. Some cycle models point to a potentially bullish phase beginning around October or November, although historical cycle patterns are approximate rather than fixed calendar rules

The magnitude of any rally may also be smaller than in bitcoin’s early years. In 2012, bitcoin was a thinly traded asset worth barely $10, and its market could be moved by a relatively small number of buyers.

Today, bitcoin is part of a multi trillion dollar market with substantial institutional participation, deep spot and derivatives liquidity across dozens of venues, and a broad range of directional and relative-value strategies, including options, futures and basis trades. Those markets did not exist at comparable scale in 2012, making a rally of similar percentage magnitude much harder to achieve today.

“Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership. Spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for investment. Derivatives markets have changed how risk is transferred. The rally of more than 2,000% that followed the 2012 sequence cannot become a reasonable expectation for 2026,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said commenting on the data.

He explained that the present market structure is different and driven by institutional capital.

“The real change is therefore one of market structure. Bitcoin’s rise in 2012 began in a market that could be transformed by a small pool of buyers. The case in 2026 depends on whether large pools of capital continue allocating after the easiest gains have been made,” he noted.

Institutions have returned to the crypto market, if the U.S.-listed spot ETFs are a proxy. These funds have pulled in over $5.5 billion in investor money since August, according to data source SoSoValue.

“The durability of those allocations matters more,” Subburaj said.

History often rhymes

Nansen’s Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, referring to the rare pattern and four-year cycles.

“We always look for patterns, and Bitcoin has, for better or worse, continued to adhere to the 4-year cycle. Sometimes slightly late, sometimes early, so it is not unsurprising that we see certain patterns play out again and again (to a certain degree, of course),” Sondergaard told CoinDesk.

“It is not a guarantee that we will now see a red October, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some drawback (not a wild new low) but some drawback in the coming weeks given how the market has been performing,” Sondergaard added.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said the significance lies less in the historical pattern and more in what’s driving it this time, specifically institutional flows into ETFs, which could continue to absorb supply in the fourth quarter even as the short squeeze runs out of steam.

However, she stressed that macro conditions could still play an important role.

“The main counterweight remains macro conditions, with the Fed raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that another hike could follow this year. Whether spot inflows remain positive after the squeeze fades will therefore be a more useful signal of durability than the calendar pattern itself,” Zhang noted.

07:24 UTC: Adds comments from Giottus and data about spot ETF inflows.

08:10 UTC: Adds comments from Nansen and Bitget Wallet.

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As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.

As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.

Why it matters:

As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.