# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-17 09:00 UTC)
## @Rahul_J_Mathur (Rahul Mathur) · 09-17 04:22 · ♥45 ↻2 💬4 Some reflections from GFF 2026 https://x.com/Rahul_J_Mathur/status/2100440186413035952
## @HunterAllen4 (THE GAP FATHER) · 09-16 21:57 · ♥31 ↻0 💬9 $ON
Dead in the water? A drip salad?
LONG IT.
Because the tape sure looks that way. ON opened around $74.33, tagged $74.42, then got absolutely smoked to $65.80 before closing at $66.60.
That’s roughly a 9% haircut on ~18M shares, with the stock breaking the rising trendline that had held for months. This is what a real sentiment reset looks like.
The timing makes the selloff even more interesting. ON held Financial Analyst Day today and laid out a $213B 2030 TAM, a 12–14% long-term revenue CAGR, a 53% non-GAAP gross-margin target and a 30–35% FCF margin target.
The operating leverage underneath it is what keeps me interested. Q2 revenue came in at $1.604B, up 9% YoY, non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%, and free cash flow hit $425M, roughly 4× the prior year.
Factory utilization has climbed from 68% exiting 2025 to 83% in Q2, with management targeting the low-90% range. If those fabs continue filling, utilization becomes a meaningful piece of the path toward that 53% margin target.
Then there’s the AI power opportunity. ON isn’t trying to compete for the GPU itself; it is positioned throughout the power infrastructure surrounding the compute, including silicon, SiC, GaN, high-voltage power, intermediate bus conversion, point-of-load power, protection and analog control.
Management expects AI data-center revenue to exceed $500M in 2026 and has laid out a path toward more than $2.5B by 2030. That is a meaningful growth vector for a company coming off roughly $6.5B of annual revenue.
The new Embedded Power Platform is another piece I’m watching closely. ON says its wafer-level architecture can deliver 3–5× higher power density by integrating silicon, SiC and GaN into a more advanced package.
Subaru is evaluating the technology for future EV applications, which is an evaluation rather than a production contract, but it shows ON is trying to move beyond selling individual power components and toward differentiated power architectures that can capture more content per system.
There’s also a huge amount of existing investment sitting underneath this story. ON says it invested roughly $8.7B from 2021–2026 while expanding its addressable market by approximately $81B, and the current model calls for capex around 5% of revenue.
That matters because the next phase is increasingly about filling and optimizing capacity that has already been built rather than launching another massive greenfield spending cycle.
I’m not ignoring the risks either. The roughly $6.1B LTSA remaining performance obligation provides visibility but shouldn’t be treated as guaranteed revenue because portions can be modified or canceled.
The $SNPS transaction introduces integration and dilution considerations, while automotive and industrial markets remain cyclical. Most importantly, today’s trendline breakdown is real, so I want the chart to prove something before getting overly aggressive.
For now, the technical picture is properly washed out.
RSI has fallen into the mid/high-30s to low-40s, TSI is deeply negative, volume exploded, and ON is trading below the 20 EMA around $74 and the 50/200-day area around $80–81.
I’m watching $65.80, then approximately $62 and $55 underneath, while a reclaim of $70–72 followed by $74 would be the first indication that today’s flush may have been more of a sentiment reset than a lasting breakdown. Followed by 80$ 200ma.
This is exactly what the new Telegram is built for. I don’t want hundreds of people joining to see another stream of random tickers I’m looking for the washed-out, high-conviction setups where the risk/reward gets interesting before the crowd comes back. 🌶️
$ON is now firmly in that conversation for me, and when I find a setup I’m willing to put real conviction behind, that’s where it goes first.
Highest-conviction swings. No noise. No filler. Just the bangers.
DONT MISS THESE. LINK IN BIO. RISK $ON https://x.com/HunterAllen4/status/2100343429993832600