# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-24 04:40 UTC)
## @GainsOnPaper (Jordan) · 09-24 00:47 · ♥71 ↻5 💬3 On June 22, 2026, $NBIS hit its all-time high of $299.86.
It now sits around $226.61 — about 24% off that high.
Q3 is next. Expect another blowout. Any 2027 guide will look huge and still be sandbagged.
Everything below is after the ATH:
Late June / July
•Kao Data: 10-year UK deal for 22 MW at Harlow (AI Cloud + Token Factory) •Nebius AI Cloud 3.6 shipped •Asset-light partner model: partners fund/own sites; Nebius runs the full-stack cloud •First asset-backed debt facility: $775M •Nvidia 13G: 9.3% passive stake. Stock popped ~6% •Freedom Capital to Buy; Northland PT to $410 •Expanded AI Discovery Awards (healthcare / life sciences)
August (Q2 + financing)
•Q2 print (Aug 12) — stock ripped 20%+ •Revenue $582.3M, +454% YoY •AI Cloud $574.9M, +514% YoY •ARR $3.0B •Adj. EBITDA $236M (41% group / ~50% AI Cloud) •Four AI-cloud deals averaging >$1B; contract value nearly 4x •First capacity auction (midterm): cleared 15% above any prior Blackwell price and ~20% above the then-pipeline •First short-term / dedicated sprint deal signed around the print at ~$40–50M per MW vs ~$20–25M on 1–3 year deals •Mgmt: could sell all 2027 capacity at current terms, but holding some back for higher near-term pricing •Contracted power target raised to 5 GW by YE 2026 •~$40B+ commitments; >$9B expected 2026 prepayments covering ~50–60% of related capex •FY26 guidance reaffirmed: $3.0–3.4B revenue, $7–9B ARR, ~40% adj. EBITDA margin •Token Factory inference volumes >3x in Q2; Nebius Echo launched •Convertible notes proposed, upsized, and closed at ~$5.75B •Baird PT to $340; Goldman PT to $328 •Lindsey Irvine named CMO
September
•Palantir names Nebius preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner •On-demand hike effective Oct 1: H100 +17%, H200 +20%, B200 +19%, B300 +21%; some CPU +25%; memory +~41% •Token Factory (inference) rates also up ~16–20% from Oct 1; existing contracts/reservations unchanged •New Madrid (eu-south1) private region went live •FTSE All-World inclusion
Price is lower. Post-ATH the company has auctioned capacity above old highs, booked premium short-term MW deals, raised list and inference prices again, added Palantir, and funded more of the build. Q3 is next. https://x.com/GainsOnPaper/status/2102922749278842923
## @investwithyash_ (Investor Yash) · 09-23 12:49 · ♥31 ↻3 💬2 📹 The Frog Betting Its Comeback on 27 Cameras!🔥
Frog Eyes- 27 new CCTV camera models.
How an Indian telecom company lost 51% of its revenue in one year — and is now staking its FY27 turnaround on a CCTV launch that’s already been delayed three times.
👉Meet the company that builds the invisible bars on your phone.
Frog Innovations (Noida, listed since 2004) makes the tech that stops your signal from dying inside airports, malls, and metro tunnels. Solid, boring, B2B telecom hardware business for two decades.
Then FY26 happened — revenue got cut in half. And now, the company’s rebound story hinges on something completely outside its comfort zone: cameras.
👉First, the quick tour of what Frog actually builds:
The legacy business:
•OneDAS — massive signal boosters for airports/metros. Frog is the only Indian company that owns this tech outright.
•Digital repeaters — smaller signal boosters for offices/buildings.
•Antennas & cables — the wiring telecom towers need to broadcast.
👉The new bets(Game changer🔥):
•AI EYE — AI software that watches CCTV feeds and flags fires, intruders, license plates, in under 2 seconds.
•DCRA — a government-appointed body that grades buildings on signal/fiber quality, like a credit score for connectivity.
•EMS — renting out factory lines to build smart meters, routers, gadgets for other brands.
•Defence tech — signal-jamming protection for border areas.
🎯 And the headline bet: Frog Eyes — 27 new CCTV camera models.🔥
👉Here’s the brutal part of the story first.
FY26 numbers: 📉 Revenue: ₹219 Cr → ₹106 Cr (-51.6%) 📉 EBITDA: ₹35 Cr profit → ₹1 Cr loss 📉 Net profit: ₹23.5 Cr → ₹1.6 Cr loss 📉 EPS: ₹15.2 → -₹0.1
Cause: a year-long rent dispute between telecom infra providers and operators froze major airport/metro projects — Frog’s highest-margin business went silent overnight.
👉Now here’s the pivot: why cameras, why now?
Management’s logic is simple — telecom hardware is cyclical and just proved it (see above). Software and surveillance hardware carry fatter margins and aren’t as exposed to telecom capex freezes.
So Frog built:
•27 IP camera models — 2MP, 5MP, 8MP, in dome/bullet/varifocal styles
•Aimed at enterprise projects + North Indian retail distribution
•Backed by AI EYE software (boosted by acquiring a controlling stake in AI firm Vinfocom, whose financials get folded into Frog in FY27)
👉The target: ~₹50 Cr in revenue from this CCTV line alone in FY27. That’s nearly 25% of their entire ₹200+ Cr FY27 revenue goal, riding on a product category they’ve never sold before.
👉But this bet has already stumbled — three times.
The cameras need STQC certification (a government quality/safety clearance) before they can be sold commercially. The timeline:
🗓️ Original target: December 2025 🗓️ Pushed to: March 2026 🗓️ Pushed again to: Q1 FY27 🗓️ Now targeting: September 2026
Each delay was due to technical observations and non-compliance flags in lab testing. Three misses in a row is not a great trend line for a product that’s supposed to deliver a quarter of next year’s growth.
Frog Innovations isn’t just recovering from a bad year — it’s trying to prove it can be more than a telecom hardware company while doing it.
The CCTV bet is the clearest symbol of that ambition: higher margins, a shot at consumer/retail relevance, and a hedge against telecom’s boom-bust cycles.
👉Vision FY28: ₹500+ Cr revenue, ₹75+ Cr EBITDA.🔥
The road there runs through 27 cameras that still don’t have a green light.
Disclosure: Not investment advice. DYODD. https://x.com/investwithyash_/status/2102742023593926667