# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 23:31 UTC)
## @ParadisLabs (Paradis) · 10-01 21:27 · ♥122 ↻6 💬18 $MU earnings recap & key beneficiaries.
TLDR: - Supply/demand conditions remain tight for DRAM and NAND until at least 2028. - Micron signed 10 more SCAs (26 in total) which accounts for 35% of total revenue until 2030. - Supply is expected to come online soon via new fabs, but Micron doesn't see this helping satisify demand.
1. Supply/demand
S/D conditions will remain tight until at least 2028 for DRAM and NAND. Micron management said this multiple times on the call.
That said, Micron plan to speed up fab construction, resulting in increased capex next year (from $10.8B now to $25B in H2 2027) to expand HBM and conventional DRAM capacity.
- Idaho fab: mid-2027 production - Singapore: H2'28 production - Hiroshima cleanroom: late 2028 production - NYC fab: 2030 production
I think this extra capex is a clear positive read-throughs for semicap names like $AMAT and $LRCX.
2. Strategic Customer Agreements
Micron has a total of 26 SCAs now (10 new ones this quarter).
Currently, the agreements account for ~35% of total revenue until 2030. Longer-term, it's expected that this rises to >50%.
Around 3/4 of these SCAs have structured pricing with take/pay revenue targets and prepayments from customers totalling $32B.
3. DRAM
Micron forecasts DRAM bit supply to grow around 25% (conservatively) in 2026.
Since supply conditions will persist, they expect this to to be around 20% growth in 2027-28.
In terms of HBM, these will keep ramping as time goes on, driving TAM expansion via HBM4E (with $NVDA ).
4. NAND
Micron forecasts NAND bit supply to grow around 20% (conservatively) in 2026.
In 2027-28, it's expected that this rises to ~25%. Again, supply constrained conditions will continue.
This is a positive read on $SNDK.
Cash balance is huge too now w/ $44B cash from ops in Q4 - so buybacks are the next logical step imo.
Overall very positive earnings. Tried to find any big flaws today and failed. https://x.com/ParadisLabs/status/2105771549366145244
## @StockSavvyShay (Shay Boloor) · 10-01 22:54 · ♥93 ↻11 💬20 $MU gave us a lot more evidence that memory could get tighter before it gets better with management saying 2027 and 2028 may be more constrained than 2026 even after the huge move in pricing.
Whats wild is that Micron still expects revenue to rise as price increases moderate which means growth can shift toward more volume and better mix instead of needing DRAM up high teens and NAND up 30% every quarter.
That’s why the story is getting bigger than HBM because HBM actually hasn’t been Micron’s highest margin product yet so 2027 repricing can improve that while AI demand keeps pulling on HBM, server DRAM and enterprise SSDs across entire memory stack. https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2105793425283101147
## @SoSoValueCrypto (SoSoValue) · 10-01 01:07 · ♥30 ↻6 💬1 Micron’s Q4 Profits Surge as Wall Street Raises the Bar https://x.com/SoSoValueCrypto/status/2105464682803028166