# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-16 15:00 UTC)
## @CrypticTrades_ (Luca - Cryptic Trades) · 09-16 12:59 · ♥32 ↻1 💬6 Almost two months ago, I said there would be NO RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER.
Today, markets are pricing roughly a 95% probability of one.
So yes, I was wrong.
I expected Trump to have more success de-escalating the geopolitical situation before we reached this point, especially with higher rates creating another political headache heading into the midterms.
I overestimated his ability to end the Iran conflict quickly.
But the bigger story is no longer one 25-basis-point hike.
The market is beginning to price a NEW TIGHTENING CYCLE, with several additional hikes potentially coming over the next few meetings.
And that raises a much bigger question:
DO HIGHER RATES END THE BULL MARKET, OR DO THEY SIMPLY BECOME THE NEW REALITY?
I believe it is the second.
Corporate output remains strong. The labor market remains resilient. AI is driving enormous CapEx and productivity investment. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and energy prices are keeping inflation pressure elevated.
That combination gives the Fed room to remain hawkish and could keep yields higher.
And ironically, this may be the catalyst that pushes us deeper into the ROARING 20s thesis I’ve discussed for years.
Corporations and asset owners continue benefiting from the technology and productivity boom, while consumers get squeezed by extreme mortgage rates, higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation.
That is where the wealth gap becomes even more extreme.
So yes, I WAS WRONG ON THE SHORT-TERM CALL.
But on the higher timeframes, I do not believe one hike, or even a renewed hiking cycle, automatically ends this bull market.
Technology, corporate investment and economic output remain the bigger forces.
If anything, the fact that the Fed believes the economy can absorb tighter policy tells us something important about the environment we are in.
Maybe the rate hike I expected Trump to prevent is actually one of the catalysts that pushes the ROARING 20s into its next phase. > 引用 @CrypticTrades_: I'm going to say this now:
There will be NO RATE HIKE in September.
Market makers don't want you buying when the risk-reward is favorable.
They want you buying AFTER the move.
And don't forget...
We're in a midterm year. Trump will not allow rate hikes that would wreck the labor market and consumers.
This WHOLE WAR can be over with ONE TWEET. https://x.com/CrypticTrades_/status/2100207831358042272
## @ReturnDriver (🥬배추단장🥬) · 09-16 14:07 · ♥36 ↻0 💬1 AI capex 수혜주들을 장투하면 무조건 돈을 많이 벌 거다.
우리가 현금화를 하는 이유는 단기 손실을 줄일려는 목적이 아니다.
한정된 자원으로, 주가가 더 내려온 상태에서 더 많은 주식을 확보하기 위함이란 걸 명심해라.
더 많은 주식을 확보하야 한다. https://x.com/ReturnDriver/status/2100225154173505656
## @TechBuzzChina (Tech Buzz China) · 09-16 01:30 · ♥31 ↻2 💬1 China's richest internet companies are raising outside money, and not because they need cash. Alibaba held RMB 474.5 billion (~$66B) in cash and liquid investments at end-June. Tencent reported RMB 511.2 billion (~$71B) in total cash. The money is for AI infrastructure. The terms are the interesting part.
ByteDance went out for $20 billion. Nearly 30 banks across China, the US, Europe and Singapore subscribed over $30 billion, so it upsized to $29.6 billion unsecured. That is Asia's second-largest dollar loan this year. Alibaba placed HK$80 billion (~$10B) of new shares in Hong Kong in late August, all earmarked for AI. Tencent issued $2.45 billion plus RMB 15 billion (~$2.1B) of bonds in June, some maturing in 2056.
Our read: the unsecured structure and the willingness to pay for 30-year money show these firms are locking in capital while it is still cheap and available, not because the AI returns are proven. Alibaba says AI capex pays back in about three years at current gross margins. Its AI product revenue has grown triple digits for 12 straight quarters to over RMB 49.5 billion (~$6.8B) annualized. That is real, but still a fraction of the commitments. If credit tightens, the cost of the next round rises for everyone building behind them.
h/t @TMTPostGlobal https://x.com/TechBuzzChina/status/2100034456807420374
## @StefanThelenius (Stefan Thelenius) · 09-16 11:02 · ♥33 ↻0 💬2 Microsoft $MSFT är numera en utdelningsaristokrat - höjer utdelningen med 7,7% till $0,98 per kvartal
Lite högre än vad jag hade trott med tanke på all AI-CapEx https://t.co/ukuXOwgMcm https://x.com/StefanThelenius/status/2100178576419025240