# data center revenue — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-20 01:55 UTC)
## @carrioresearch (Carrio) · 09-19 15:58 · ♥31 ↻6 💬1 🚨InP substrate prices: 6-inch wafers up 250% to $5,000 since China's export curbs, with a further 10%-plus rise brewing for Q4
TAIPEI, Sept. 19 — The average price of a 6-inch indium phosphide (InP) wafer has surged 250% to $5,000 since China introduced export restrictions on InP, Reuters reported on June 11. The curbs began in February 2025, so that is roughly 16 months of cumulative gains.
The Reuters story, written by seven reporters, said AXT ($AXTI) and Sumitomo Electric (5802 JT) together make almost 80% of the world's InP substrates, with JX Advanced Metals (5016 JT) at around 10%. AXT produces most of its substrates in China, and its Chinese subsidiary received its first export permits only in June 2025, leaving a significant order backlog. Three people familiar with the matter told Reuters that Coherent ($COHR) Chief Executive Jim Anderson joined the U.S. business delegation accompanying President Donald Trump to China in part to raise the licensing delays. SemiAnalysis analyst Konrad Wang said Lumentum ($LITE) is sold out through 2028 despite quadrupling output, and that Taiwan's VPEC (2455 TT) and LandMark Optoelectronics (3081 TT) faced substrate disruptions from AXT's permit delays. Analysts said a new substrate plant usually takes two to three years to come online.
Prices kept climbing after June. Taiwan's Economic Daily News reported on Aug. 17 that InP substrate prices have been raised three times since they started rising in the fourth quarter of 2025 and are heading for a fourth increase in the fourth quarter of this year, while epitaxial wafer prices, up twice, are heading for a third. The size of each increase has widened from 3% to 5% to more than 10%, the paper said, calling it the largest on record, and quoted suppliers as saying that even buyers with money may not be able to get supply.
The two Taiwanese epi makers named by Reuters posted rising revenue over the same period. LandMark's August consolidated revenue was NT$520 million, up 180.9% from a year earlier and above NT$500 million for a second straight month, a company record. Revenue for the first eight months was NT$3.147 billion, up 129.0%. In the remarks column of its monthly filings, LandMark gave the same reason every month from June 2025 through August 2026: higher data center product shipments than a year earlier. VPEC's August revenue was NT$471 million, up 71.2% year on year and 11.6% from July, also a record for a second straight month. Optoelectronics made up 46.1% of the month's revenue, up from 40.1% in July. Taiwanese financial outlet MoneyDJ, reporting VPEC's August sales, said InP substrate supply is gradually easing.
Buyers are moving to long-term contracts. LandMark announced on Aug. 26 a four-year supply contract with a U.S. customer for data center CW lasers covering 2027 through 2030. On the supply side, it signed a four-year InP substrate purchase contract for 2026 through 2029 with a Japanese supplier and its Taiwan subsidiary, and a substrate purchase contract covering all of 2027 with a U.S. supplier. Its board approved up to NT$2.27 billion in equipment purchases the same day.
Upstream figures are getting bigger too. AXT's second-quarter revenue was $47.6 million, compared with $26.9 million in the first quarter and $18.0 million a year earlier. InP revenue reached a company record of $30.7 million, up from $3.6 million a year ago. Chief Executive Morris Young said on the earnings call that the order backlog is well over $100 million and extends into 2027, and that about $66 million of third-quarter revenue either already has an export permit or does not need one. On its mid-August earnings call, Coherent said "indium phosphide capacity continues to be our primary constraint," adding that it will double internal InP output year over year by the end of the current quarter and more than double it again by the end of 2027. On Lumentum's call the same week, management said of substrates: "if this vector continues, we're probably going to need to look for more help on substrate."
Taken together, the 250% figure captures the first leg of the move, driven by the export curbs. The 10%-plus increase being lined up for the fourth quarter would be a second leg, arriving after substrate supply has started to scale. Reuters reported that Yunnan Germanium (https://t.co/dR5EnWnvZQ) announced in April a 189 million yuan investment to expand capacity to 450,000 InP wafers a year. The next markers: Taiwan's September revenue filings, due by Oct. 10; the actual transaction prices for fourth-quarter substrates and epi wafers; and whether AXT converts the roughly $66 million of permitted third-quarter revenue. https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2101340168737452278