# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-26 19:34 UTC)
## @TradexWhisperer (Trade Whisperer) · 09-26 18:38 · ♥36 ↻8 💬2 HBM supply vs demand gab in Gigabits. What you must understand:
-That -7% bit shortfall is really a -21% to -28% wafer shortfall for HBM4E. It eats 3x to 4x more wafers per bit due to TSV and very low stack yields.
-The gap went from -1% to -7%. It's widening even as all 3 giants pour resources and wafer starts into HBM. That's a breakout.
-2027 new supply is already sold out. The memory trio is ramping with discipline, and SK Hynix's chairman doesn't see balance returning even by 2030. https://x.com/TradexWhisperer/status/2103917031859147116
## @SemiconductorsX (Semiconductor Insider) · 09-26 04:59 · ♥33 ↻4 💬2 DRAM shortage is deepening into 2027 because AI demand for HBM and server memory is outrunning supply.
HBM uses 3–4x more wafer capacity than regular DRAM, so producers shift output to it and crowd out conventional chips. New fabs take years to build; equipment lead times are long. Incremental 2026–27 capacity cannot close the gap.
Morgan Stanley projects deficits of 17% in 2026 and 15% in 2027.
SK Hynix’s CEO called 2027 the worst shortage in memory history.
The result is a multi-year supercycle of tight supply and high prices for Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. $DRAM $SKHY $MU > 引用 @MojoTricks: DRAM shortage deepens into 2027e 📉
Morgan Stanley data:
2023: -4% 2024: -5% 2025: -4% 2026e: -17% 2027e: -15%
Absolute gap keeps widening. 2027 is shaping up to be the worst year in memory history.
$MU $SKHY $SSNLF https://t.co/wHnbJjMwIv https://x.com/SemiconductorsX/status/2103710950553694600