# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-17 02:27 UTC)
## @TradexWhisperer (Trade Whisperer) · 09-16 23:18 · ♥93 ↻6 💬11 $MU $SKHY $DRAM $SNDK
KB Securities on Memory and AI Infra Capex.
“With AI infrastructure investment expanding rapidly, the global semiconductor market next year could face an unprecedented supply shortage.”
“KB Securities projected that major hyperscalers’ AI infrastructure investment next year will reach $1.3 trillion, up 60% from this year.”
“Memory’s share of AI infrastructure investment is expected to rise from 14% in 2025 to 40% in 2026 and 57% in 2027.”
“With Samsung and SK Hynix memory inventories already below 10 days, sellable volume itself may become absolutely insufficient, beyond a simple demand recovery.”
“HBM needs more wafers than commodity DRAM, so expanding HBM output can crowd out commodity DRAM supply… these constraints could last through 2027.”
“Samsung’s 2027 PER is estimated at 3.8x and SK Hynix at 3.5x.”
“Earnings at both firms could set all-time highs over the next three years, with large shareholder returns continuing, so the current extreme undervaluation could turn into a strong re-rating.” https://x.com/TradexWhisperer/status/2100363786276487482
## @imnotharsh (ImNotHarsh | 📈💸) · 09-16 21:47 · ♥44 ↻9 💬4 $INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s key statements & comprehensive breakdown from Q&A with Ed Nelson at AI Infra Summit 2026.
1. On culture / the Cadence playbook: - "I like bad news. Tell me all the bad news."
- "If you screw up, they take full responsibility. The one I really don’t like is starting to point fingers at others."
- "Delight the customer. Go the extra mile… listen very carefully… then really make the changes."
2. On the Intel rebuild: - "When I took over it was over 100,000 people and I had to bring it down to 78,000… instead of 10–12 layers you bring it down to four to five." - "Manufacturing is critical for Intel on the foundry and the most advanced packaging."
3. On AI “slowdown” calls: - "AI is much bigger than the internet’s impact. Some correction is kind of natural and I don’t overreact to it."
- "We live in Silicon Valley. It’s a bubble… different parts of the country [have] a very strong anti-AI sentiment. Leaders need a more positive narrative."
- "At Intel I completely embraced AI… Gemini, Anthropic, Perplexity… design and chip manufacturing."
4. On Habana / Gaudi: - "When Habana Labs was sold to Intel, Intel didn’t keep the team. The founders left and started Element Labs… It’s a mistake. You have to empower the founders." Contrast he drew was Amazon kept the Annapurna team.
5. On CPU demand: - "The CPU right now is in high demand. In reinforcement learning, agentic AI… control plane, orchestration… [CPU] is actually very useful."
- "They can only provide some percentage of customer [demand]. Many of my CEO friends call me up: I need more."
6. On Nvidia / Coopetition: - "You can’t do everything. You cannot own everything. Pick the area you’re really good at and double down… partner [where others] have much stronger areas of excellence."
- "U.S. government… Masa… Jensen… we find a way we can work together."
- "CUDA is fantastic software… Your CPU, my GPU… engineering-to-engineering collaboration."
- "That’s called coopetition. Some areas we collaborate, some areas they compete… we can create a bigger market so we’re both going to win."
7. On the raise, 18A, 14A, packaging: - "Last year I’m not ready to go to the public market… This year I’m going to own the number. Underpromise and overdeliver."
- "Capex is huge for foundry and advanced packaging."
- "Our 18A is in volume production now."
- "14A… 0.9 PDK will be done in October and 1.0 PDK in Q1 of next year. The key thing is performance, yield, defect density, variations, and cycle time."
- "Advanced packaging… 14× the radical integration and only two layers, not three layers like CoWoS. We will have a chance to take the leadership."
- "The substrate is very tight. Only four key players, two in Japan, two in Taiwan."
- "Next-gen AI needs that big packaging: CPU in the middle, HBM outside, then high-speed I/O."
- "$23 billion raise. We’re oversubscribed by 5.6 times."
- "Intel is an iconic company… important for the industry and very important for the United States. We’re going to build that new Intel."
8. On what founders should solve: - "Memory prices have gone up a lot — five, six times, seven times… you cannot have 70–80% of your cost come from memory."
- "Power is very important… also how to drive the architecture to make it lower power."
- "Optical becomes very important."
- "Cooling is a big problem… liquid cooling, microfluidic cooling."
- "The future is going to be the whole system approach. Give Jensen credit. My friend Lisa Su has done that. Stay tuned. More announcements coming."
My takeaways:
This quote intrigued me: "At Intel I completely embraced AI… Gemini, Anthropic, Perplexity… design and chip manufacturing."
Memory is the quote that matters from this tape. He says he called it early, it happened, and 2027 gets worse, 5–7x prices, projects slipping, low-end BOM blown out.
18A in volume now; 14A PDK 0.9 in October, 1.0 in Q1. Scoreboard is yield, defects, variation, cycle time.
Packaging and substrates is the second bottleneck he is openly underwriting with the raise. Two-layer vs CoWoS, Hynix hire back to Intel, 2+2 substrate oligopoly.
Capital story is sequenced with private partners first (USG / Jensen / Masa) because he wasn’t ready for the public market; this year own the number, ~$23B, 5.6x oversubscribed.
CPU tightness mentioned here too, but he said “some percentage” and CEOs calling, which isn't the explicit “we can only supply 50% of customers” line from the Jeetu/Splunk interview.
Software/systems closer: rack-scale, low GPU utilization, virtualization layer, “strong software leader coming,” explicit credit to Jensen and Lisa Su for already selling the rack. > 引用 @imnotharsh: $INTC Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will take stage tomorrow, September 15th, at the AI Infra Summit. He will speak at 1:15PM EST in a mainstage fireside with Ed Nelson.
The session is titled "The AI Opportunity: Silicon to Systems." Tan is set to talk about collaboration across the ecosystem and how silicon, systems, and software drive the next phase of AI.
Intel is expected to show progress on AI infrastructure across edge, enterprise, cloud, and physical AI, following the systems-level approach it outlined at Computex. https://x.com/imnotharsh/status/2100340742338003131
## @datacentrebull (Datacentremonkey) · 09-16 22:31 · ♥32 ↻1 💬0 🚨 Everyone said AI capex was a bubble.
$NBIS just hiked GPU prices 17-21% again. Second time in 5 months. If we’re “overbuilding,” why does compute keep getting more expensive, not cheaper?
The bears are about to be very wrong. https://x.com/datacentrebull/status/2100351989498736781