HBM demand · X 热门 · 2026-09-12 10:02 UTC

# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-12 10:02 UTC)

## @SemiconductorsX (Semiconductor Insider) · 09-12 03:32 · ♥38 ↻8 💬2 The HBM wafer race is no longer a one-horse chart. But Samsung is going to chance it next year.

Today SK Hynix sits at 160,000–170,000 wafers a month, Samsung at about 170,000, Micron at 40,000–50,000.

Year-end 2026 targets are 200,000 for SK Hynix (plus 30,000), 250,000 for Samsung (plus 80,000) and 100,000 for Micron (plus 55,000, or 2.2 times).

Samsung adds the most absolute wafers. SK Hynix stays the scale leader. Minor source-to-source variance exists. The ranking and the direction of the ramps are consistent.

SK Hynix moved first. It treated HBM as a strategic product years before the AI boom, locked NVIDIA H100, H200 and B200 sockets, and built a packaging edge with MR-MUF that yields better and runs cooler on 12-high stacks.

That early work with NVIDIA and TSMC still shows in a 50% second-quarter 2026 revenue share, down from 58–64% peaks.

Samsung brings overall DRAM scale, line conversion and in-house foundry for custom base dies. After HBM3E qualification delays it recovered yield, shipped HBM4 first in February 2026, and jumped from 21% to 33% share in one quarter.

Micron executes well but started from a smaller base. Its 40,000–50,000 to 100,000 year-end path is widely corroborated.

Samsung’s 250,000 target would give it the largest installed HBM wafer base by year-end. UBS and some Korean brokers already model a narrow HBM4 and overall bit-share lead in 2027, about 41% versus 39% for SK Hynix.

Process flexibility, foundry integration and a bigger conversion pool are the arguments.

The risks are real. SK Hynix still holds the current-generation yield and NVIDIA relationship, plus dedicated fabs later.

HBM4 execution and 2027 HBM4E timing decide whether that capacity bet becomes share leadership or just a closer race.

Demand stays sold out through 2026 either way.

Does Samsung’s extra 80,000 wafers by year-end actually flip 2027 share, or does SK Hynix’s NVIDIA lock still set the mix? $MU $SKHY https://t.co/tvriMMRlFi https://x.com/SemiconductorsX/status/2098615606883020910

## @burak_finance (Burak Finance) · 09-11 20:58 · ♥34 ↻5 💬7 Citi just put a number on photonics.

Optical interconnect $92B by 2028. 65% compound growth from 2025.

High-speed mix inside data centers goes from 37% to 89%. Silicon photonics goes from 29% to 60%. CW laser chip demand grows 114% a year.

They are calling lasers the next HBM. https://t.co/4VdgBF7wQw https://x.com/burak_finance/status/2098516430409089352