Bitcoin surged above $87,000 on Friday, driven by softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data showing nonfarm payrolls increased only 29,000 last month and unemployment ticked up. Weaker labor market conditions typically ease inflation pressure, potentially reducing Federal Reserve rate hikes and boosting riskier assets like bitcoin and stocks.
The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, falling far short of the 90,000 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Wage growth remained subdued at 0.1% monthly and 3% annually, suggesting a weakening labor market with limited hiring despite low layoffs. The soft report may prompt the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady as it prioritizes inflation control.
The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, falling well short of the 90,000 forecast, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. The weak labor market data boosted financial assets, with Treasury yields falling, stock futures gaining, and markets pricing in a lower probability of another Fed rate hike this month.
Stablecoins are experiencing significant growth in Latin America despite thin liquidity infrastructure, while Aave proposes regulatory adjustments to the EU's MiCA framework to support DeFi and euro stablecoins. The Federal Reserve notes stablecoin issuers' Treasury holdings have exceeded $200 billion over five years.
Global shares rose Friday as bond market volatility eased ahead of key US jobs data expected to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Bond yields fell in major economies, though spreads between safer German bonds and riskier euro zone debt widened to levels unseen since 2012, raising concerns about potential market stress.
Trump oversees extensive White House renovations including an 80,000-square-foot helipad and new ballroom, finding solace in construction projects he can control. Meanwhile, his presidency faces mounting challenges: a seven-month Iran war, soaring inflation and interest rates driven by tariffs, plummeting approval ratings at 32%, and a fraying political coalition as Republican candidates distance themselves from his policies.
President Trump is considering removing up to three Federal Reserve governors, including former Chair Jerome Powell and governors Lisa Cook and Michael Barr, citing a watchdog report on costly Fed headquarters renovations. However, recent court rulings suggest removal attempts would face significant legal obstacles and could backfire by encouraging the governors to remain and litigate. The IG report found no criminal misconduct or administrative wrongdoing, weakening Trump's legal position.
The US will release its September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday at 20:30 Beijing time. Reuters surveys expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 90,000, down from 162,000 in August, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. The report is crucial for assessing labor market strength and guiding the Federal Reserve's October rate decision.
The 10-year Treasury yield posted its largest monthly gain since September 2022, climbing over 50 basis points and hovering near 5.31%, driven by elevated oil prices and inflation concerns. October presents additional headwinds as Treasurys historically perform weakly in that month, while the market watches for a critical 5.5% threshold where valuations may compress significantly. The yield's rise may partly reflect unwinding of the yen carry trade.
Stablecoin issuers' holdings of U.S. Treasury bills could reach $400 billion by 2030 based on current growth trends, outpacing even Japan's acquisition rate since 2023. Meanwhile, global debt has surged by $10 trillion to a record $365 trillion over the past six months.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signaled the Fed may need more time before raising rates again, causing market odds for an October hike to fall to 23% from 70% the previous week. Jefferson cited rising bond yields and the need for more economic data, while Goldman Sachs moved its forecast for the next rate increase to December.
A crypto analyst shared October 2026's major events including token unlocks from Sui, Ethena, Aptos, and Celestia; key macro data releases (ISM, NFP, CPI, PPI, PCE); and major conferences (Token2049 Singapore, Money2020 USA). A second post analyzed Bitcoin bull-run signals, noting 5 of 6 have fired since June's low, with the weekly EMA ribbon flip still pending. A third post discussed Web3 security, emphasizing wallet and smart contract interaction risks beyond basic account security.
The dollar surged to a 17-month high against the euro on Thursday as government bond selloffs pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2002, driven by inflation concerns and rising oil prices. The euro fell below $1.123 for the first time since May 2023, declining 2.5% in September amid weakness in French bond markets and expectations of continued central bank tightening.
Mortgage rates reached their highest level since late 2023 as Treasury yields surged to 22-year highs, driven primarily by inflation stemming from wars in Iran and Ukraine that have pushed energy prices sharply higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.34% and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.6%, while diesel prices spiked 70% since February, raising concerns about broader price pressures across shipping and farming sectors.
U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance Thursday as the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.338%, its highest level since April 2002, driven by concerns over fiscal deficits. Markets are navigating competing signals as yields remain elevated ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision, while corporate earnings resilience provides some support.
U.S. manufacturing accelerated in September with PMI hitting its highest level since May 2022, driven by surging new orders that prompted increased production, hiring, and order backlogs. Despite declining exports, safety stock demand supported growth, fueling market speculation about further Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
TS Lombard's Chief Economist Steven Blitz warns the Federal Reserve committed an "original sin" by easing monetary policy prematurely before inflation was fully suppressed, potentially driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 8%. He attributes this to loose fiscal and monetary policies combined with political pressure, arguing the political will to genuinely suppress inflation may not emerge until 2029.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller announced that AI agents now account for approximately half of FRED traffic, which grows 150% annually. FRED has launched an MCP Connector enabling users to access economic data through AI agents, while the team develops tools to ensure proper data usage.
Global bond markets experienced severe sell-offs as UK 30-year bond yields surged to 6%, their highest level since 1998, driven by concerns over unsustainable US deficits and persistent inflation fears linked to elevated oil prices. Central banks are expected to maintain or raise interest rates to combat inflation, while stock markets declined sharply across major exchanges including London, Germany, and France.
A commentary critiques government and central bank attempts to artificially suppress long-term interest rates through Treasury buybacks announced in August 2024, arguing such market interventions are cosmetic, temporary, and likely to produce unintended economic consequences rather than solving underlying problems.